SoftBank Shares Plunge 13% as OpenAI Reportedly Delays IPO to 2027

SoftBank Group shares plunged 12-13% on June 26, 2026, their steepest decline since August 2024, after the New York Times reported that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its initial public offering until 2027. The drop erased most of the gains from the previous session, when the Nikkei had closed at a record high. The broader Japanese market followed SoftBank down, with the Nikkei falling 4.15% to close at 69,360.88 and the Topix also dropping sharply.

The speed and severity of the decline reflects how heavily SoftBank's valuation has become tied to OpenAI's public market prospects. CEO Masayoshi Son has positioned the AI startup as a cornerstone of his investment strategy, and any uncertainty about its timeline translates directly into investor anxiety. Bloomberg reports that the selloff was specifically driven by concerns that the delay would push back returns for SoftBank, which has committed billions to OpenAI.

According to the New York Times, OpenAI advisors have presented management with two options: launch the IPO quickly at a lower valuation, or wait until 2027 to target a higher valuation in more favorable market conditions. The company appears to be choosing patience over speed, betting that delaying the listing will yield substantially better financial outcomes.

This calculus makes sense given OpenAI's current private valuation of over $850 billion, as noted by Kavout. Going public in a choppy market risks leaving money on the table. TradingKey reports that OpenAI specifically wants to secure a higher valuation and wait for improved market conditions. However, this strategy creates tension with early backers like SoftBank who may have anticipated earlier liquidity. The delay also extends the period during which OpenAI must manage its complex corporate structure, including its transition from nonprofit to for-profit entity.

SoftBank's exposure to OpenAI goes beyond passive investment. The Japanese conglomerate has made AI the centerpiece of its portfolio strategy, with Son personally championing the sector. Just weeks earlier, on May 21, 2026, SoftBank shares had surged over 14% on anticipation of imminent IPO filings from OpenAI and SB Energy, according to Kavout. That rally now looks premature.

The whipsaw illustrates a fundamental risk in SoftBank's model: its valuation increasingly tracks the perceived value of unlisted assets rather than operating performance. Morningstar characterized the situation as adding a "new worry" to the tech selloff, suggesting broader implications beyond SoftBank alone. The Wall Street Journal had previously reported on SoftBank's enthusiasm for OpenAI's IPO plans, making the reversal particularly painful for investors who bought in on that narrative.

The OpenAI delay reverberates beyond SoftBank into the broader technology sector. Morningstar notes that the reported delay "complicates further the picture for tech stocks" at a moment when the sector already faces headwinds. OpenAI was widely expected to be one of the largest and most consequential public offerings in recent years, and its postponement removes a potential liquidity event that could have reignited investor appetite.

The decision also signals that even the most highly valued private companies remain cautious about public market conditions. If a firm with OpenAI's profile and backing isn't rushing to list, smaller startups may follow suit, extending the drought in tech IPOs. This creates a feedback loop: fewer listings mean less liquidity for venture capital, which tightens funding for growth-stage companies. Zawya reports that the Nikkei dropped 2.65% for the week, with SoftBank contributing disproportionately to the decline.

The immediate question is whether SoftBank's drop represents a buying opportunity or a warning sign. Seeking Alpha had published bullish analysis just ahead of the selloff with the headline "SoftBank: Get In Before The OpenAI IPO," a timing that now looks unfortunate. The 13% decline has compressed SoftBank's valuation, but it also reflects genuine uncertainty about when, or if, OpenAI will deliver the liquidity event that underpins much of the investment case.

For OpenAI, the 2027 target creates a two-year runway during which it must continue scaling revenue, managing costs, and navigating competitive pressure from Google, Anthropic, and others. The delay also extends the timeline for resolving governance questions around its unusual corporate structure. Neil Campling, cited by Bloomberg, noted the specific concern about delayed returns for SoftBank. Until OpenAI provides clarity, expect SoftBank shares to remain volatile on any news about the IPO timeline.

This episode highlights how AI valuations have become decoupled from near-term cash flows and increasingly dependent on narrative and exit timing. OpenAI's $850 billion-plus valuation exists in a private market vacuum; a 2027 IPO would test whether public investors accept that figure. The delay suggests OpenAI's own advisors doubt current market appetite.

SoftBank's experience offers a cautionary tale about concentration risk in thematic investing. Son's AI bet has produced dramatic gains, but the June 26 selloff shows how quickly paper profits can evaporate when timelines slip. For the broader market, OpenAI's decision to wait may prove prudent, but it also defers the moment of truth for AI valuations.