ASML Sees 2026 Revenue Surge to €39B as AI Chip Rush Redraws Global Supply Map

ASML Holding NV now expects to haul in between €34 billion and €39 billion in 2026, a meaningful bump from earlier guidance that landed closer to the low €30 billions. The Dutch company credits the step-up to an explosion of orders for its extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and high-NA lithography gear needed to print advanced logic and memory chips for AI workloads. First-quarter revenue came in at €8.77 billion, beating street consensus, while net profit margins widened as the product mix tilted toward higher-margin EUV systems.

South Korea overtook China as ASML’s single largest market in Q1, accounting for a record 37 percent of system sales as Samsung and SK hynix scramble to expand high-bandwidth memory capacity. Taiwan reclaimed second place at 29 percent, powered largely by TSMC’s 3 nm and 2 nm ramps for Nvidia, Apple, and AMD. China’s share slid to 21 percent, the lowest since mid-2022, reflecting both U.S. export-license restrictions and a lull in domestic foundry build-outs after last year’s binge.

ASML’s bullish revision ripples through every tier of the semiconductor supply chain. SEMI estimates total wafer-fab equipment spending will rise 9 percent to $126 billion in 2026, then another 7.3 percent to $135 billion in 2027. Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, and Lam Research have all guided higher for calendar 2026, citing the same AI-driven capex wave. Even second-tier metrology and inspection players like KLA and Onto Innovation are seeing lead times stretch into 2027.

The bottleneck is no longer just lithography. CoWoS packaging capacity at TSMC, HBM substrate availability from Ibiden and Unimicron, and advanced reticle blanks from Hoya are all on allocation through 2027. ASML’s new Twinscan EXE:5200 systems—the only tools that can print 2 nm features at scale—are sold out until 2028. In effect, the AI gold rush is creating a seller’s market for every critical layer of the stack.

While China’s share of ASML sales dipped, absolute revenue from the region still grew year-over-year in euro terms. The company confirmed it has received no new blanket license revocations for older-generation DUV systems, but reiterated that EUV and high-NA tools remain off-limits to Chinese customers under Dutch and U.S. rules. That policy firewall is pushing Beijing to accelerate domestic alternatives, though no Chinese lithography firm is expected to ship sub-7 nm tools before 2030.

Shares initially popped 6 percent on the headline forecast lift, then gave back half the gain after CFO Roger Dassen warned that quarterly bookings can be “lumpy” despite the upward trajectory. At €750 per share, ASML trades at 39× 2026 earnings, a premium justified by its monopoly position in EUV yet still vulnerable to any AI-spend downshift. Options markets imply a 12 percent move around the next earnings cycle, skewed to the upside.

Management will host a capital-markets day in November to detail capacity expansion at its Veldhoven headquarters and new logistics hubs in South Korea and Arizona. The wild card remains geopolitics: any tightening of U.S. export rules or a flare-up over Taiwan could scramble demand patterns overnight. For now, ASML is sticking to its playbook—ramping EUV output 30 percent by 2027 while keeping pricing power intact.